NOAA releases 2018-19 Winter Outlook

Federico Mansilla
Octubre 19, 2018

On Thursday, NOAA released their annual 2018-19 Winter Outlook.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted a milder winter across much of the United States.

El Nino has a 70 to 75 percent chance of developing, it will likely be in place by late fall/early winter.

But North and SC, along with much of the southeast and Mid-Atlantic, the Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley, "all have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures", NOAA said.

With the Southeast the only region not projected to have above-normal temperatures, that could mean a few winter storms will bring snow to the Deep South, which can cause major disruption to the region.

Drought conditions are most likely across the Southwest, Southern California, the central Great Basin, central Rockies, Northern Plains, and parts of the interior Pacific Northwest.

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The Southeast, Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic can go any which way on temperature, Halpert said. The Arctic Oscillation influences the number of arctic air masses that penetrate into the South and could result in below-average temperatures in the eastern part of the U.S. The Madden-Julian Oscillation can contribute to heavy precipitation events along the West Coast - which could play a large role in shaping the upcoming winter, especially if El Nino is weak, as forecasters predict.

-Wetter-than-average conditions are favored across the southern tier of the USA, and up into the Mid-Atlantic.

It is also predicting lots of snow "for the Great Lakes states, Midwest, and central and northern New England, with the majority of it falling in January and February". Northern Florida and southern Georgia have the greatest odds for above-average precipitation during the winter, the NOAA said.

Along with Michigan, Halper said northern Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Wisconsin are expected to be drier than normal, along with parts of Idaho, Hawaii and Montana, too. They will provide you with estimated snowfall totals for the winter in Eastern Kentucky.

-Even during a warmer than normal winter, it will still get cold and snow is still likely to occur.

NOAA's winter forecast comes as the mercury is finally beginning to dip across most of the country after a summer that lasted well into October in the eastern U.S., with temperatures into the 80s and even 90s.

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