Study puts thousands of ENC homes at repeated risk for tidal flooding

Federico Mansilla
Junio 19, 2018

"What's striking as we look along our coasts is that the significant risks of sea level rise to properties identified in our study often aren't reflected in current home values in coastal real estate markets", said UCS economist and report co-author Rachel Cleetus. And Tampa Bay faces some of the greatest risk within the Sunshine State.

The study, conducted by the Union of Concerned Scientists, states that within the next 30 years, almost 64,000 homes in Florida will experience flooding every other day, 12,000 of them being in Miami.

"Once market risk perceptions catch up with reality, the potential drop in Floridas coastal property values could have reverberations throughout the economy — affecting banks, insurers, investors, and developers — potentially triggering regional housing market crises", the report said.

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By 2045, almost $4 billion worth of residential property is at risk of chronic flooding, now worth about $28.5 billion. The homes at risk by 2100 now contribute roughly $187 million collectively in annual property tax revenue. Even that intermediate estimate could still mean $1 billion in Texas property value lost at sea.

But the risk is very high in North Florida due to the abundance of coastal development.

According to the report, a "rapid decrease in carbon emissions and slower melting of land-based ice" could reduce the number of properties at risk by as much as 80 percent by 2060. Using three sea level rise scenarios developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and localized for this analysis, UCS determined how many residential and commercial properties along the entire lower 48 coastline are at risk of becoming chronically inundated from high tides. It predicts around 6 and a half feet of sea rise by 2100. These include Miami, Miami Beach, Fort Myers, West Palm Beach and the Keys.

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